27 December, 2005 - 7:38am

Analysts are predicting major disruptions for IT next year, many of which we view as applicable to the identity space particularly with respect to Web 2.0, open source, and on-demand.

IDC claims there will be an acceleration of disruptive business models – 'open innovation' in IT product and service development and online delivery of IT as a service. Gartner believes the 'second internet revolution' is now unfolding and that the maturing of the internet will cause more business upheaval.

IDC posits in their article "IDC Predictions 2006: It's Gut-Check Time as Disruptive Business Models Gain Traction" that "online, on-demand delivery of applications — also known as software as a service — will advance significantly as a 'disruptive innovation'." They further explain, "IT delivery has been shifting from products to services over the past several years. But in 2006, IDC expects this model shift to accelerate. The most obvious evidence of this shift reaching a tipping point will be the announcement in 2006 of next-generation versions of applications delivered as an online service (e.g., Salesforce.com) from one or more of the packaged application leaders (SAP, Microsoft, Oracle)."

IDC also projects a similar philosophy to our Founder & CEO Dick Hardt's perspective that simple and open wins. IDC writes, "the 'open innovation,' community model will gain traction as a key to application growth, diversity, and leadership. One of the chief reasons enterprise application vendors are shifting to a web services–based, composite application model is that the monolithic, closed application model prevents them from addressing the rapidly expanding variety of solutions customers want — and therefore stifles the vendors' (and the industry's) growth."

Gartner gives similar credence to Web 2.0 and on-demand application delivery in their report, "CIO Resolutions for 2006: Surge in technology innovation and unpredictable economy make 2006 a 'paradoxical year'." They suggest "the failure of poorly crafted Application Service Provider (ASP) offerings from the dot com era is now a distant memory. While there is hype around the concept of 'web 2.0', there is underlying substance to the trend. And they recommend that CIOs start a significant 'software as a service' implementation as a trial and education.

We'll revisit these again next year at this time to determine how far we've progressed!